Despite Genentech’s rejection of Roche’s $43.7 billion offer last week, coverage of the fallout from the "failed" bid continues as industry observers speculate on Roche’s next move. 

According to a report by the Silicon Valley Business Journal and San Francisco Business Times, Reuters has forecasted that the final purchase price of Genentech will be $53 billion or $107.50 per share.  According to The Pink Sheet Daily, such a high price could prove to be problematic for Roche, who may be forced to make operational cuts as a direct result of the deal.

Speculation is also growing as to whether or not Genentech is going to be able to keep its talent in anticipation of a potential acquisition by Roche.  SF Gate reported that, as anticipated by analysts, there already is a flurry of recruiter activity erupting at Genentech as a result of the initial Roche bid.  The Pink Sheet Daily noted that it will be difficult to retain Genentech’s current talent, as many of the senior-level people will have no financial incentive to stay.   Of course, it goes without saying that the general atmosphere of uncertainty and the anticipated change of culture will likely start driving employees out the doors of Genentech.  However, observers seem to agree that Roche has likely worked the loss of key Genentech employees into the equation in deciding to pursue a bid to acquire the company. 

The Genentech/Roche deal is viewed as just the first of  a new wave of big pharma acquisitions of biotech companies to come in the near future, as pharma companies continue to explore opportunities to replenish their pipelines.  Seeking Alpha explained as follows:

Big Pharma is feeling the need to find new products with blockbuster potential as several important drugs approach the expiration of their patent protection. . .  . Many large pharmaceuticals have lots of cash on their balance sheets, making acquisitions an affordable option. The weaker dollar has also made U.S. companies look more attractive to biotech and pharmaceutical firms abroad. Another major factor is the difficult process of receiving FDA approval. This lengthy and grueling process provides an additional incentive to buy companies that have already received FDA approval on their drugs, ensuring smooth pipeline production going forward.



Potential buyout targets to keep an eye on: Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN), United Therapeutics (UTHR),  Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN), Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).

To date, there has been no word on Roche’s next move or when it is likely to take place.  How high will Roche go with the next offer?  The California Biotech Law Blog will keep you posted on any developments.